Why Is This US Shutdown Distinct (and More Intractable)?
Government closures are a repeat element of US politics – however the current situation appears especially difficult to resolve because of political dynamics and bad blood between the two parties.
Some government services are temporarily suspended, and about 750,000 employees are expected to be put on unpaid leave as both political parties can't agree regarding budget legislation.
Votes aimed at ending the deadlock continue to fall short, with little visibility on a clear resolution path this time because each side – including the nation's leader – perceive advantages in maintaining their positions.
These are several key factors that make things feel different currently.
First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – beyond healthcare issues
Democratic supporters have insisted over recent periods for their representatives adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Currently Democratic leaders has a chance to show their responsiveness.
Earlier this year, the Senate's top Democrat was fiercely criticised for helping pass GOP budget legislation thus preventing a shutdown in the spring. Now he's holding firm.
This is a chance for the Democratic party to demonstrate their ability to reclaim certain authority from an administration that has moved aggressively with determined action.
Opposing the Republican spending plan carries electoral dangers as citizens generally will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and impacts accumulate.
Democratic representatives are leveraging the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies together with GOP-backed government healthcare cuts for the poor, which are both unpopular.
They are also trying to restrict the President's use of his executive powers to cancel or delay funding approved by Congress, a practice demonstrated in international assistance and other programmes.
2. For Republicans, they see potential
The administration leader and one of his key officials have made little secret of the fact that they perceive an opening to advance further the cutbacks in government employment implemented during in the Republican's second presidency to date.
The President himself said last week that the government closure provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", adding he intended to reduce funding for "opposition-supported departments".
Administration officials said it would be left with a "challenging responsibility" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson described this as "budgetary responsibility".
The scope of the potential lay-offs remains unclear, though administration officials has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, or OMB, under the leadership of the key official.
The budget director has already announced the halting of government financial support for Democratic-run parts the opposition party, including New York City and Illinois' largest city.
Third, Trust Is Lacking on either side
Whereas past government closures typically involved extended negotiations between the two parties in an effort to get federal operations, there appears to be minimal cooperative willingness of collaboration this time.
Instead, animosity prevails. Political tensions persisted recently, as both sides blaming each other regarding the deadlock's origin.
House Speaker a Republican, charged opposition members with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and maintaining positions over a deal "to get political cover".
Meanwhile, the opposition's chief made similar charges at the other side, saying that a majority party commitment regarding health funding talks after operations resume cannot be trusted.
The President himself has inflamed the situation through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader and the top Democrat in the House, where the representative is depicted with a large Mexican-style sombrero and a moustache.
The affected legislator with party colleagues denounced this as discriminatory, which was denied by the administration's second-in-command.
Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability
Analysts expect approximately two-fifths of government employees – over 800,000 workers – to face furlough as a result of the shutdown.
That will depress spending – and also have wider ramifications, including halted environmental approvals, delayed intellectual property processing, payments to contractors and other kinds of federal operations tied to business cease functioning.
The closure additionally introduces fresh instability within economic systems already being roiled from multiple factors including tariffs, earlier cuts to government spending, enforcement actions and technological advancements.
Analysts estimate potential reduction of approximately 0.2% off US economic growth weekly during the closure.
But the economy typically recoups most of that lost activity following resolution, similar to recovery patterns after major environmental events.
That could be one reason why the stock market have shown limited reaction by the current stand-off.
On the other hand, analysts say should the President carries out his threat of mass firings, economic harm might become extended in duration.